Predictors of transition to schizophrenia and other long-lasting non-affective psychoses in first-episode patients with acute and transient psychotic disorders: A validation study

Background and objectives Almost half of the individuals with a first-episode of psychosis who initially meet criteria for acute and transient psychotic disorder (ATPD) will have had a diagnostic revision during their follow-up, mostly toward schizophrenia. This study aimed to determine the proportion of diagnostic transitions to schizophrenia and other long-lasting non-affective psychoses in patients with first-episode ATPD, and to examine the validity of the existing predictors for diagnostic shift in this population. Methods We designed a prospective two-year follow-up study for subjects with first-episode ATPD. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent variables associated with diagnostic transition to persistent non-affective psychoses. This prediction model was built by selecting variables on the basis of clinical knowledge. Results Sixty-eight patients with a first-episode ATPD completed the study and a diagnostic revision was necessary in 30 subjects at the end of follow-up, of whom 46.7% transited to long-lasting non-affective psychotic disorders. Poor premorbid adjustment and the presence of schizophreniform symptoms at onset of psychosis were the only variables independently significantly associated with diagnostic transition to persistent non-affective psychoses. Conclusion Our findings would enable early identification of those inidividuals with ATPD at most risk for developing long-lasting non-affective psychotic disorders, and who therefore should be targeted for intensive preventive interventions. (AU)

Prognostic significance of psychotic relapse in patients with first-episode acute and transient psychosis: New empirical support for ICD-11.

This study examined the impact of psychotic relapse on the diagnostic stability of acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD), and how this potential risk factor could differentiate 'acute polymorphic psychotic disorder without symptoms of schizophrenia' (APPD; ICD-10 code F23.0) from the remaining non-APPD subtypes (F23.1-9). A two-year cohort study was performed on 68 patients with first-episode ATPD. At the end of follow-up, the diagnostic stability of ATPD was 55.9% and the overall rate of psychotic relapse was 61.8%. Statistical analysis showed that recurrence was an independent risk factor for diagnostic shift in ATPDs (relative risk [RR] = 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.17-2.39; p = 0.005) and that this risk differed among their subtypes insofar as its appearance significantly increased the likelihood of diagnostic change in patients with non-APPD subtypes (RR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.56-4.07; p < 0.001), but not in those with APPD (RR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.57-1.57; p = 0.844). Our findings confirm the negative implications of recurrence in patients with ATPD, encourage long-term intervention targeting relapse prevention in this population, and provide new empirical evidence in support of narrowing the ATPD category to APPD in the upcoming ICD-11.

Predictors of diagnostic stability in acute and transient psychotic disorders: validation of previous findings and implications for ICD-11.

Acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD) have moderate prospective diagnostic stability. Female gender, older age at onset, good premorbid adjustment, abrupt onset, shifting polymorphic symptomatology and absence of schizophrenic features have been found to be predictive factors of diagnostic stability in ATPDs. Nevertheless, most of these findings need to be replicated. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic stability of patients with ATPD, and to determine whether previously accepted predictors of diagnostic stability for ATPD could be externally validated in our cohort. To that end, a prospective 2-year observational study was conducted on patients with first-episode ATPD. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine factors associated with ATPD diagnostic stability at the end of the follow-up period. The following prior knowledge variables were analyzed: female gender, older age at onset, good premorbid adjustment, abrupt onset, shifting polymorphic symptomatology and absence of schizophrenic features. Sixty-eight patients with first-episode ATPD completed the follow-up, of whom 55.9% (n = 38) retained their diagnosis of ATPD at the end of the study. Multivariate analysis revealed that diagnostic stability was independently significantly associated with the presence of shifting polymorphic symptomatology (OR = 7.42, 95% CI 1.65-33.30; p = 0.009) and the absence of schizophrenic features (OR = 6.37, 95% CI 1.47-27.54; p = 0.013) at the onset of the psychotic disorder. Our findings provide empirical support for the ICD-11 proposal restricting the new ATPD category to the acute polymorphic disorder without schizophrenia symptoms.

Acute stress and substance use as predictors of suicidal behaviour in acute and transient psychotic disorders.

Several authors have reported high rates of suicidal behaviour in acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD). However, the literature in this area remains scarce. We wanted to find out whether there are predictors of suicidal behaviour in ATPD. Of 1032 psychosis admissions examined over a five-year period, ATPD was confirmed in 39 patients according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) diagnostic criteria. These patients were classified as suicidal behaviour (20.5%) or non-risk (79.5%) using a structured interview to assess suicidal risk. The following variables were analysed: previous history of suicide attempt or deliberate self-harm, history of depressive episodes, previous substance use history, education, ATPD subtype (polymorphic vs. non-polymorphic), type of onset (abrupt vs. acute), and presence of associated acute stress. Multivariate analysis revealed that acute stress and substance use are significantly associated with suicidal behaviour in ATPDs. To our knowledge, this is the first study identifying independent risk factors that could predict suicidal behaviour in individuals with ATPD.

Is the Prevalence of the Deficit Syndrome in Schizophrenia Higher than Estimated? Results of a Meta-Analysis.

The primary and enduring presence of negative symptoms observed in a relatively homogeneous subgroup of patients with schizophrenia led to the concept of deficit syndrome (DS). Until date, it is considered that 20-25% of schizophrenia cohorts have DS. The aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the current prevalence of DS, including international and most recent studies. Thirteen observational studies met the inclusion criteria, comprising 2092 patients from eight countries. Pooled proportion of the DS subgroup was 32.64%, higher than previously reported. Based on our outcomes, up to one-third of patients with schizophrenia might have idiopathic and stable negative symptoms. This significant proportion of patients should be well represented in clinical trial's samples.